As I look back on the presidential election of a year ago today, I’m still amazed at the extent to which voters defied the predictions made by so many presumably respectable conservative commentators. The pundits to which I refer weren’t just wrong. They were waaay wrong.


Their problem, I think, was that they allowed their hearts to overrule their heads. That’s something I try to avoid in making political predictions. As a disciple of polling analysts Nate Silver, Sam Wang and Drew Linzer, I was confident on election eve that Barack Obama would win a second term by a fairly ...

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As I look back on the presidential election of a year ago today, I’m still amazed at the extent to which voters defied the predictions made by so many presumably respectable conservative commentators. The pundits to which I refer weren’t just wrong. They were waaay wrong.

Their problem, I think, was that they allowed their hearts to overrule their heads. That’s something I try to avoid in making political predictions. As a disciple of polling analysts Nate Silver, Sam Wang and Drew Linzer, I was confident on election eve that Barack Obama would win a second term by a fairly ...

Read more