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Independence, MO —
The National Weather Service wants to get through loud and clear, but experience shows that’s not always easy, so officials this spring have taken a more direct approach.
“We don’t want to scare people for no reason, but if we need to scare them, we certainly need to have a way to do that,” says meteorologist Andy Bailey of the National Weather Service office in Pleasant Hill, Mo.
Although tornadoes kill an average of 70 Americans each year – but eight times that number last year, including one alone that killed 160 in Joplin, Mo. – emergency managers have long been concerned and frustrated that many people are slow to seek shelter once a severe weather warning is posted.
“I think we’ve seen a lot of cases where people don’t take the warning seriously,” Bailey says.
Experts say even when a strong warning pops up on TV or over the radio, people usually call a friend or relative, maybe two. Then they step outside to look at the sky. They often wait for the sirens to go off (although frustrated emergency managers point out that those are intended only to warn people who happen to be outdoors). One word of warning isn’t enough. People almost inevitably look for confirmation.
“It’s not that they’re stupid. It’s just something we all psychologically go through,” Bailey said.
So the Weather Service offices in Missouri and Kansas are taking a new approach to fight complacency and give people more specific information. There are now two levels of warning for tornadoes, the higher of which can carry language such as “This is a life-threatening tornado” and “Complete destruction of entire neighborhoods likely.”
“We’re not really trying to scare people,” Bailey said. “We’re really just trying to paint a picture of what the storm is going to look like.”
The changes in part grew out of meteorologists’ frustration in May 2011. On May 22 came the devastation in Joplin. Three days later, a couple of small tornadoes danced around the Kansas City area and caused little damage – something forecasters knew was likely. Still, residents’ nerves were on edge, and when warnings were posted, schools and other places sent people to hallways and basements, in some cases for a couple of hours. The two situations – an EF5 in Joplin, something significantly less dangerous in Kansas City – were entirely different, so the Weather Service came up with the different sets of warnings. The stronger warnings, with language such as “You could be killed if not underground or in a tornado shelter,” are expected to be fairly rare. The last storm in Kansas City that would have merited one was in 2003, the Weather Service says.
The National Weather Service wants to get through loud and clear, but experience shows that’s not always easy, so officials this spring have taken a more direct approach.
“We don’t want to scare people for no reason, but if we need to scare them, we certainly need to have a way to do that,” says meteorologist Andy Bailey of the National Weather Service office in Pleasant Hill, Mo.
Although tornadoes kill an average of 70 Americans each year – but eight times that number last year, including one alone that killed 160 in Joplin, Mo. – emergency managers have long been concerned and frustrated that many people are slow to seek shelter once a severe weather warning is posted.
“I think we’ve seen a lot of cases where people don’t take the warning seriously,” Bailey says.
Experts say even when a strong warning pops up on TV or over the radio, people usually call a friend or relative, maybe two. Then they step outside to look at the sky. They often wait for the sirens to go off (although frustrated emergency managers point out that those are intended only to warn people who happen to be outdoors). One word of warning isn’t enough. People almost inevitably look for confirmation.
“It’s not that they’re stupid. It’s just something we all psychologically go through,” Bailey said.
So the Weather Service offices in Missouri and Kansas are taking a new approach to fight complacency and give people more specific information. There are now two levels of warning for tornadoes, the higher of which can carry language such as “This is a life-threatening tornado” and “Complete destruction of entire neighborhoods likely.”
“We’re not really trying to scare people,” Bailey said. “We’re really just trying to paint a picture of what the storm is going to look like.”
The changes in part grew out of meteorologists’ frustration in May 2011. On May 22 came the devastation in Joplin. Three days later, a couple of small tornadoes danced around the Kansas City area and caused little damage – something forecasters knew was likely. Still, residents’ nerves were on edge, and when warnings were posted, schools and other places sent people to hallways and basements, in some cases for a couple of hours. The two situations – an EF5 in Joplin, something significantly less dangerous in Kansas City – were entirely different, so the Weather Service came up with the different sets of warnings. The stronger warnings, with language such as “You could be killed if not underground or in a tornado shelter,” are expected to be fairly rare. The last storm in Kansas City that would have merited one was in 2003, the Weather Service says.
Part of the challenge is another perennial headache for emergency managers: Forecasters post watches and warnings, but many people get those terms confused.
A watch means conditions are favorable for a tornado or severe thunderstorm. Watches tend to be posted over large areas and for several hours.
“It’s really to give you an idea you need to have a heightened sense of awareness,” Bailey said.
A warning means radar or a trained weather spotter has actually spotted a storm, a funnel cloud or rotation within a storm, and those tend to be over smaller areas and for shorter times. The Weather Service, now able to zero in on a storm’s likely track and duration, is tightening up those, too.
“We do not issue warnings for entire counties any more,” Bailey said.
That means your NOAA all-hazards radio will still go off if there’s a warning for part of your county, but you’ll have the information to decide whether to take cover. Authorities also are turning to social media – Twitter and text messages are fast – to create more pathways to get the word out.
Emergency managers suggest residents have several means of getting advisories, such as signing up for text alerts plus, of course, keeping an eye on the TV or ear on the radio when a watch is posted. Bailey and others also strongly recommend getting a weather radio.
“Thirty bucks – it’s all you’ve got to spend,” he said. “It’s a bargain.”
The American Red Cross has a wealth of information on household emergency preparedness. Go to www.redcross.org and click “preparing and getting trained.”
