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Washington, D.C. – Contrary to some of the hot-headed voices who desperately want to see bombs falling on Tehran, I believe provoking war with Iran could have disastrous, and avoidable, consequences.
Unfortunately, the possibility of an armed confrontation with Iran is not as far-fetched as it may seem. Saber-rattlers within the Israeli government are impatient, concerned that the window of opportunity for a pre-emptive strike on Iran would close if Barack Obama, who advocates a diplomatic approach, were elected president.
Iran’s testing of missiles capable of reaching Israel and U.S. troops in Iraq has certainly not helped matters. Unsurprisingly, this has caused consternation here in Washington and around the world this week.
Moreover, a resolution, H.Con.Res. 362, is making its way through Congress that would demand the president impose “stringent inspection requirements on all persons, vehicles, ships, planes, trains, and cargo entering or departing Iran” and prohibit “the international movement of all Iranian officials not involved in negotiating the suspension of Iran’s nuclear program.”
While this might sound like a good way to isolate Iran, passing such a resolution would be an act of careless brinksmanship. As the Friends Committee on National Legislation point out, “By whatever name it is called, unless authorized by the U.N., this action would be widely construed as a blockade and an act of war by Iran and most of the international community.”
Indeed, the U.S. could only enforce such a blockade with military force, which would undoubtedly strengthen the extreme hardliners in Iran who would like nothing more than an armed confrontation with America.
This would be catastrophic, as the U.S. military is already overstretched in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. economy is straining under the enormous costs of war and oil prices that would go nowhere but up in the event of conflict with Iran. Iranian civilians would also bear the brunt of any conflagration.
“Opening up a third front right now would be extremely stressful on us,” Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen said recently. “That does not mean we do not have capacity or reserve, but that would really be very challenging. And also the consequences of that sometimes are very difficult to predict.”
Unfortunately several members of Congress from Missouri are supporting H.Con.Res. 362. Representatives Russ Carnahan, William Clay, Emanuel Cleaver and Sam Graves are all co-sponsors of this resolution.
Washington, D.C. – Contrary to some of the hot-headed voices who desperately want to see bombs falling on Tehran, I believe provoking war with Iran could have disastrous, and avoidable, consequences.
Unfortunately, the possibility of an armed confrontation with Iran is not as far-fetched as it may seem. Saber-rattlers within the Israeli government are impatient, concerned that the window of opportunity for a pre-emptive strike on Iran would close if Barack Obama, who advocates a diplomatic approach, were elected president.
Iran’s testing of missiles capable of reaching Israel and U.S. troops in Iraq has certainly not helped matters. Unsurprisingly, this has caused consternation here in Washington and around the world this week.
Moreover, a resolution, H.Con.Res. 362, is making its way through Congress that would demand the president impose “stringent inspection requirements on all persons, vehicles, ships, planes, trains, and cargo entering or departing Iran” and prohibit “the international movement of all Iranian officials not involved in negotiating the suspension of Iran’s nuclear program.”
While this might sound like a good way to isolate Iran, passing such a resolution would be an act of careless brinksmanship. As the Friends Committee on National Legislation point out, “By whatever name it is called, unless authorized by the U.N., this action would be widely construed as a blockade and an act of war by Iran and most of the international community.”
Indeed, the U.S. could only enforce such a blockade with military force, which would undoubtedly strengthen the extreme hardliners in Iran who would like nothing more than an armed confrontation with America.
This would be catastrophic, as the U.S. military is already overstretched in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. economy is straining under the enormous costs of war and oil prices that would go nowhere but up in the event of conflict with Iran. Iranian civilians would also bear the brunt of any conflagration.
“Opening up a third front right now would be extremely stressful on us,” Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen said recently. “That does not mean we do not have capacity or reserve, but that would really be very challenging. And also the consequences of that sometimes are very difficult to predict.”
Unfortunately several members of Congress from Missouri are supporting H.Con.Res. 362. Representatives Russ Carnahan, William Clay, Emanuel Cleaver and Sam Graves are all co-sponsors of this resolution.
A staffer for Senator Kit Bond told me that he too supports the resolution. Senator McCaskill does not yet have a position on it, as it has not reached the Senate floor but believes “we need aggressive diplomacy” on Iran, according to spokeswoman Maria Speiser.
Iran’s foreign policy is undoubtedly a great threat to the Middle East and the world. We should have no illusions about that. However, I believe unthinkingly blundering into another conflict would be disastrous for the U.S. and the globe. Indeed, we have seen in Iraq how the “best laid plans’ of the U.S. government unleashed horrific social disintegration in Iraq.
Iran is an ancient civilization, with a history of sophisticated culture, including poetry, film and art. They also have a large population of young people fed up with rule by the clerics and want contact with the outside world. There is potential, however small, for engagement, citizen diplomacy and long-term change.
The U.S. must work to constrain Iran’s attempts to throw its weight around, but I do not believe military action is the most effective way to seek meaningful transformation of Iran’s government, society and foreign policy.
For the sake of peace, the economy and sensible foreign policy, call your congresspersons and urge them not to support H.Con.Res. 362.
