Pushing ahead: Midwest economy still gives cause for concern

It might be a reach to say the things have turned the corner, but one steady gauge of the Midwestern economy suggests that modest growth might be in the offing.

That’s the good news, as measured by the Business Conditions Index at Creighton University in Omaha, Neb.

The more sobering news is abundant. One is that inflation, as a long-term threat, seems to be building. Another is that the folks at Creighton see weakness particularly in Missouri’s economy, as jobs – mostly manufacturing jobs – continue to be lost.

Data from the Federal Reserve, released late last month, also show flat retail sales in this part of the country and manufacturing to be on the decline. One example: The three Detroit automakers all have plants in Missouri, and all three are going through sudden, painful shifts in the marketplace and are losing stunning amounts of money.

Silver linings? Energy and agriculture are doing well. Oil has been dropping for about three weeks, and even a few dimes off the price of a gallon of gas feels like a small break.

Oh, and there’s one more thing. There’s a national election 13 weeks from today, so we’re likely to hear more economic claims and proposals – some serious and worth debating, some pure hokum – between now and then. None of them will bring back $1.50 gas or resolve the credit mess, but maybe some will help nudge the country toward more rational long-term policies.