I know you appreciate my ruminations about political economics, but today let’s get back to making money on your money. With two days to go (from my writing this) to finish one-sixth of the year, most observers are amazed thus far with the market.

I know you appreciate my ruminations about political economics, but today let’s get back to making money on your money. With two days to go (from my writing this) to finish one-sixth of the year, most observers are amazed thus far with the market.

The new bullish trend began on Oct. 3, right on schedule from the autumn low. Since then through Monday, oil is up 42, semiconductor index 30, NASDAQ Composite 27, NASDAQ 25, S&P 500 24, Dow Jones Industrials 21.8, silver 16, gold 6.6, aggregate bonds .55 and the dollar negative 2.8, all in percentages. I hope you have not been All Out during this period.

Since Dec. 30, the big winners have been semiconductor stocks and their inclusive index, the NASDAQ, and silver with a 27 percent gain and gold, up 12.9 percent. The S&P and Dow indices have slowed in rate of rise, but 8.7 and 6.2 are still nice gains.

Many foreign markets have been on fire again after having a horrible fourth quarter. Capitalism won the Vietnam War, in case you had not heard, and that stock market has gained 37 percent this year. The only single country fund I find outperforming that is Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF with a 45 percent gain. Isn’t Egypt the last place you would think about right now?

Others from China and Chile to Russia, Thailand and Turkey have gained between 15 and 30 percent (without any leverage involved) in two months. What about Europe – down and out, right? Not exactly. The iShares ETF’s for Austria, Germany, France, Ireland and Sweden have gained between 13 and 20 percent. Have you read or heard a lot about that? Even Italy is up 12 percent.

All bull markets begin in fear and trembling, but how can this be happening in the face of such intractable, negative conditions and possibilities? Yesterday morning on CNBC, Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO and one of the brightest guys I know about, said that 2012 is not a year to be caught in the middle. He believes it will either end very well or ... horribly. PIMCO founder and world bond guru Bill Gross says it is time to be defensive.

In the meantime, my observation and educated guess is that we will continue on an upward equity market path for the next couple of months and then have a pullback during the late spring and summer as usual. By September or earlier, we should know better whether we will continue the present anti-business-and-capital regime of President Obama in November or make a change.

If change seems probable, a huge stock market increase will break out and be sustained for months. If President Obama will receive a second term, you will be able to make money selling short, betting that our economy will stumble on for another four years. That rather simplifies the matter, doncha think?

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All performance numbers above come from Worden Bros., Inc. TeleChart Platinum software service, Feb. 28, 2012.