The National Weather Service says thunderstorms that could bring damaging winds, large hail and possibly even tornadoes are likely Sunday afternoon through Monday.
For Eastern Jackson County, there’s a slight risk of showers and thunderstorms after 10 tonight. The chance of rain is 20 percent.
The bigger risk comes Sunday, when the Weather Service says there is a moderate chance of severe weather. Severe storms are expected to develop in eastern Kansas in the afternoon and evening and roll east into Missouri into the evening and overnight. Some of these could be supercells that produce two-inch hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes. These storms are expected to merge into a complex of storms in western Missouri, mainly creating a threat of large hail and damaging winds.
The Weather Service puts the chances of rain and thunderstorms at 60 percent Sunday and again Sunday night, and that drops to 40 percent Monday and then 50 percent Monday night. The worst storms Monday are expected south and east of a line from St. Joseph to Bethany, an area generally north and east of the metro area. Again, the risks are far large hail and damaging winds.
The rainfall is expected to be moderate, generally one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch possible each day and each evening except where thundershowers are heaviest, and there’s a chance of localized flooding.
It will be warm throughout these few days of potentially bad weather, with a high of 86 this afternoon and a low of 69 tonight, followed by 85/65 Sunday and 81/62 Monday. Clear weather returns Tuesday, with a high of 76. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s are expected for the rest of the week.
National Weather Service, Pleasant Hill: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/