• Stephen Brown: Fans should trust Reid's judgment on Smith

  • There's plenty of assumption happening as a result of the Chiefs looming trade for San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith.

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  • There's plenty of assumption happening as a result of the Chiefs looming trade for San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith.
    There's hypothesis from both sides.
    Fans against the move think Alex Smith will be another Matt Cassel, that the Chiefs will do the same thing that they have done before, which is lose next season.
    That thinking discounts Andy Reid and John Dorsey. It throws out the fact that Reid has 130 games notched in his belt, and that Dorsey came from a successful team that was effective in drafting good players. Assumption has fans thinking Smith, instead of a rookie quarterback that could be acquired with the very first pick, will fail.
    Supposing leads to trouble, but that goes both ways.
    Those liking the trade believe Reid is like 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and that Reid created Eagles Donovan McNabb. McNabb was a pretty good quarterback from the start.
    Those remaining positive on the “unofficial” trade think Reid’s the quarterback guru. Besides McNabb, does Michael Vick count? Reid had him playing better, but?
    Who else, Eagles Nick Foles or Kevin Kolb? Not sure.
    Honestly, I'm assuming that Reid had a lot to do with McNabb's career, I admit that. That's guesswork on my part, but a lot goes into winning 130 games, great coaching is one.
    Making it to NFC championships and a Super Bowl is part of quality coaching.
    Fans against Alex Smith thought the Chiefs using their first pick on West Virginia’s Geno Smith made sense, but Dorsey didn’t say that.
    The 99 percent assurance Dorsey gave in drafting a QB didn’t suggest the first round.
    Since 1990, 74 percent of the Super Bowl winning teams drafted their own quarterback, but were all those picks in the first round? No, not every pick.
    Since 2000, there have been quarterbacks to go to a Super Bowl, even win without being a first round pick. It can happen.
    Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick (199th overall). Brady’s won three Super Bowls and been to a total of five. Brady has a great coach in Bill Belichick (151 wins), something Chiefs fans hope Reid can be.
    Brad Johnson, a ninth-round pick won a Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2002. Kurt Warner wasn't drafted at all, but won a Super Bowl with the St. Louis Rams in 1999. Warner also went to Super Bowl's in 2001 and 2008, but lost in both.
    Rich Gannon, a Kansas City favorite, went to a Super Bowl in 2002 and was taken in the fourth round. He was a good one.
    Last season, Russell Wilson, taken in the third round (75th overall) by Seattle, ranked fourth in the NFL with a 100 passer rating. Wilson finished 2012 with 3,118 yards passing, 26 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. Dorsey said Wilson gave the best interview he's heard in 25 seasons. Chiefs fans are guessing Dorsey can find one of those guys later.
    Page 2 of 2 - Matt Schaub was taken in the third round (90th overall) of the 2004 draft by the Atlanta Falcons; Shaub took his Houston Texans to a 12-4 record last season.
    Dallas’ Tony Romo, an up and down player but one Chiefs fans would probably take, went undrafted in 2003. Romo was a top-10 QB last season with the third most passing yards in the league, 4,903 yards.
    Back in 2001, when the Chiefs gave up their No. 12 overall pick and a second-round one for Trent Green and Dick Vermeil, the big need was a running back, fans didn't like the move at all. Deuce McAllister was the hot topic, but Kansas City instead signed Priest Holmes from Baltimore. Holmes was a player that went undrafted and had lost his starting gig to Jamal Lewis.
    Think on it, a QB that was hurt, not drafted high and a back that was a “maybe” in exchange for the Chiefs' No. 12 overall and second-round pick?
    What fans were upset over back then are good times fans remember today.
    Hey, good coaches (Vermeil had to convince Carl Peterson) can make winning choices, good coaches win. I'm saying Reid can too.
    That's what I'm trusting, because just as there's proof a first-round QB can win, there's proof that other quarterbacks than first-round picks can win as well. There's nothing saying the Chiefs still won't take a QB in the draft, Alex Smith doesn't change that possibility.
    Alex Smith deserves a chance, because we've been through this before. Cassel didn't work out, while Trent Green did. The difference I feel was good coaching, and I think we have that in Reid.
    Good day, Chiefs fans!

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