Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers odds, picks and prediction
The Memphis Grizzlies (1-0) stop by the Staples Center Saturday for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off against the Los Angeles Clippers (0-1). Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Clippers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Memphis opened its season Thursday with a 132-121 blowout of the Cleveland Cavaliers as a 7-point road favorite. Grizzlies guard Ja Morant scored 37 points on 58.6% field goal shooting with 6 boards and 6 assists.
L.A. lost a 115-113 nail-biter at the Golden State Warriors Thursday but covered as a 4-point road underdog. Clippers wing Paul George put up team-highs in points (29) and rebounds (11) and added 6 assists.
All three Grizzlies-Clippers meetings last season ended in double-digit margins with L.A. winning the season series 2-1 and the Under cashing in each game.
Grizzlies at Clippers odds, spread and lines
- Money line: Grizzlies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Clippers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Grizzlies +4.5 (-115) | Clippers -4.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 226.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Grizzlies at Clippers key injuries
- SG Dillon Brooks (hand) out
- C Serge Ibaka (back) out
- SF Kawhi Leonard (knee) out
Grizzlies at Clippers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Grizzlies 120, Clippers 113
"SPRINKLE" a tiny wager on the GRIZZLIES (+145) because I "like" Memphis plus the points and see a little value in the underdog's money line.
The Grizzlies have the personnel to match up against any lineup Clippers head coach Ty Lue can throw out there. Memphis has much better ball security and should dominate L.A. on the glass.
The Grizzlies were sixth in offensive turnover rate and seventh in defensive turnover rate last season while the Clippers ranked 14th in offensive turnover rate and 19th in defensive turnover rate.
Memphis picked up big Steven Adams during the offseason whose interior presence and toughness has improved his team's rebounding each year of his career.
The Grizzlies have done a good job defending PG since he joined the Clippers. Two years ago, PG averaged 14.5 points per game (PPG) on 53.9% true shooting (.423/.313/1.000) and a minus-10 net rating in two games against Memphis. Last season, PG averaged 13 PPG on 50.7% true shooting (.391/.222/1.000) with a minus-3 net rating in two games against the Grizzlies.
Definitely BET the GRIZZLIES +4.5 (-115) heavier than or instead of Memphis's money line based on the previous analysis. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have covered 54.9% of their road games since the start of 2019 (39-32-1 ATS) and 52.1% of their games as an underdog (49-45-1 ATS).
There's a notable " line freeze" in the betting market. More than 80% of the cash is on the Clippers according to pregame.com at the time of writing, but the line hasn't budged from the opener,
Every other game on the NBA slate has line movement. It's suspicious whenever the House doesn't move the line in response to such a lopsided betting market. It feels as though oddsmakers are comfortable with taking more pro-Clippers money.
GRIZZLIES +4.5 (-115) is my favorite bet in this game.
PASS with a slight "lean" to the Over 226.5 (-110). What's holding me back is we are also seeing a "line freeze" for the total of the Grizzlies-Clippers.
However, I think L.A. plays a lot of small ball to run Adams off the court and Memphis will keep pace with the Clippers. A faster pace equals more possession, which should mean more points.
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